Prospects for Democracy in Belarus

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Pages pages. Export Citation. Get Citation. Korosteleva, E. View abstract.

Unfinished business: challenges for Belarus on its way to democracy

With Vital Silitski. With Olga Belova-Gille. Tartu University Press, Tartu, pp — Accessed 15 April Vilnius: Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies. Accessed 5 October Melyantsov D Belarus—EU: protracted normalisation. In: Belarusian Yearbook a survey and analysis of developments in the Republic of Belarus in Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies, Minsk. Milinkevich A Belarus needs active dialogue and integration with the EU.

Vitali Silitski

Naurodski S Five myths about the Belarusian economy. Accessed 29 September Protaskin V V belorusskoj eksportnoj korzine—dificyt tovarov. Zavtra tvojej strany, 15 December. Ruch Za svabodu!

Suzdalcev A Zadanie na vesnu COM, 4 March. Kitschelt argued that constitutional designs were chosen and adopted in post-socialist countries spontaneously, and not always reflected the real distribution of power among the players engaged in constitutional process. The Belarus of the period between and belonged to the group of countries with strong legislatures the institute of the president was non-existent then.

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A separate article of this cycle will be dedicated to this. As was said above, this paper intends to assess the starting points of Belarus in comparative perspective with a non-critical application of theories.

Prospects for Democracy in Belarus - Google книги

The conclusions that can be drawn from the above analysis is that six out of seven democratization theories predicted an authoritarian outcome for Belarus, and only one factor — the constitutional design in the early s — prevented the country from sliding towards autocracy during the first three years of independence. However, democracy in Belarus was possible, and remains possible in the long run.

However, it is not about Belarusian society, which must be mature for democracy; in the case of Belarus, democratization will rather start when the monolith of the elites in power finally fractures and the winner-takes-it-all scenario becomes impossible. Belarus will only democratize when new independent groups emerge in the country, having similar resources and agreeing that institutional compromise is cheaper than the war of all against all.

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What can trigger such a situation? Some accidental events, errors made by the authorities, external shocks that lead to economic crises and bring about structural economic reforms.

The critical necessity of reforms only contributes to the pressure on the political class, which has so far demonstrated its inability to assume the political risks of modernization and thereby, paradoxically, runs even greater risks. Skip to main content. Low level of socioeconomic modernization The author of the modernization theory of democracy Seymour Martin Lipset argued that countries with higher per-capita GDP have a better chance of eventually establishing stable, effective, and legitimate democratic regimes, because economic growth is assumed to induce a chain of developmental factors: better education, more intense communications, and appearance of the middle class and civil society — the watchdogs of democracy.

Low level of mobilization national aspect Some scholars Kuzio, ; Bunce, ; Motyl, ; Kuzio, ; Marples, ; Silitski, hypothesized that the strength and direction of national identity, as well as the parameters of the national movements and national leaders could be a significant democratization factor at the beginning of transition. Lack of the European perspective The theory of external influences, specifically, the EU, on the democratization of the post-Soviet space, are basically quite similar; therefore, the most illustrative one should be cited as an example.

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